Of late, I'm hearing that e-learning is on the decline. That our world is changing--e-learning would soon get replaced by say, mobile learning (learn anywhere, even while riding back from work). That the tools are getting smarter--allowing organizations and corporate to cater for their training needs internally without having to go to the training companies.
The way I see it, these developments are great! We might then have within reach a breadth of media--ILT, online basic (say, e-briefings), online advanced (e-learning), WBT, mobile and a blend of all these. Most likely one media would not win over another. Just as radios, television, films, theatre and television have a definite place in the entertainment world.
If organizations cater for their training needs through inhouse teams (with tools getting simpler and more powerful), our expertise would demanded for times when the training does not need to be just rapid but both effective and extensive. Whether e-learning/training shops become niche or not, my bet is that the market will continue to need skilled IDs.
Cheers to the good times ahead!